British Party Leader Predicts UK Outcome in European Elections

Assignment for International Correspondent Specialism: write a story out of a press briefing as an international correspondent from your home country. 

Farage's speech to the Foreign Press Association (Video: Phoebe Yu) 

 
A small, populist, conservative party might oust the long-standing Conservative Party in the next European Parliament elections in May 2014.  It might seem like Canada in the late 1990s, when Preston Manning’s former Reform Party overtook the Progressive Conservatives as the official opposition.  But this time, the country in question is the United Kingdom, and the parties involved are the rising UK Independence Party (Ukip) and the Conservative Party.

Nigel Farage, leader of Ukip, predicted how well the UK’s three main parties will fare in the Euro elections during a press briefing to foreign journalists.

In a speech outlining the importance of this year’s Euro elections and the implications it will have for Britain, Farage suggested that the Liberal Democrats would fare the worst, the Conservatives would come in third, with Labour and Ukip competing to take the most seats.

Farage said the Lib Dems are in danger of facing a “wipe out,” with opinion poll ratings hovering from eight to nine percent.

And the Conservatives, who have never slipped past second place in UK general elections, could come out third in the Euro elections, suggested Farage.

“The prospects…would indicate that the Conservatives are going to come third in these European elections,” said Farage.

But the Ukip leader conceded that Labour is ahead of the polls, though not without questioning the accuracy of the polls in question. 

Farage sees a Labour victory or loss to be a reflection of the population’s views for a referendum on Britain’s EU membership.  Ukip aims to withdraw from the European Union, and will call for a referendum on this issue should it gain enough support.

“If Labour wins, that will be seen to be an endorsement of the Miliband position, mainly, that they are not going to match the Conservative promise of a referendum.  But if Labour don’t win, and if Ukip are able to overhaul Labour, then I think there will be enormous demand for the Labour party to match the promise [of a referendum].”

The latest EU elections poll by ICM/YouGov conducted on 10 February 2014, has Labour leading at 32%, Ukip at 26%, the Conservatives at 23% and the Lib Dems trailing at 9%.

Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, has called for a live debate with Farage on the EU question, after the Lib Dem president warned that they're in for the "fight of our lives."  Farage accepted the challenge, suggesting it take place in April or May.

Last year, Farage visited Canada to meet with Manning and ask for his advice on how an initially small protest party surged to national prominence.  The Reform Party has since been disbanded to merge with the political right.

 Farage's speech to a Canadian audience in 2013 (Credit: Ukip Media)